The Gambler's Fallacy is also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, and it is a belief that if something happens more often in a certain period of time, it is less likely to happen during a different period of time in the future, or vice versa. It could also be defined as the belief that the onset of one random event is less or more likely to happen after the occurrence of several other events. The fallacy was named after an event in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913. During a game of roulette, the ball landed in black 26 times consecutively.


Millions of francs were lost by people who were betting against black, as they reasoned that once the streak of black ended, the streak of red would begin and they would win. This was simply not true and therefore, the fallacy was named.

This type of fallacy can be found in everyday life with something as simple as a coin flip. If one person flips a coin 20 times, and it lands on heads every time, the other person might be inclined to believe that it will finally land with the tail's side up. However, there is still a 50/50 chance, no matter what sequence of heads or tails happens beforehand. This fallacy can also be found in Stephen King's novel, The Song of Susannah, in which King himself talks about his own near fatal car accident. He talks about how the odds of a car accident happening in a certain area are small because there was just a car accident there a few days ago. This is the kind of thinking that pertains back to the Gambler's fallacy.